Tuesday, November 23, 2010

Existing Home Sales: An Alternative View

Existing home sales were reported to be "slightly down":
But per their data source:

Existing home sales dropped from 5,980,000 in October 2009 (at $172,000 median price) down to 4,430,000 in October 2010 (at 170,500).  The total existing home sales market size therefore dropped from $1.029 trillion down to $755 billion dollars, a $274 billion (26.6%) dollar drop in market size in one year.

It's important to look at the economic value of the housing market, particularly on a timeline longer than month-to-month, in order to get an accurate read of where the market is when making decisions on whether to invest in companies within this line of business (such as ZIPR), as this is what affects their actual earnings. 

A comparable analysis can be completely for the new homes market, and can be used as a more accurate way of assessing the homebuilders sector.  Both existing homes and new homes economic value data can be used as supporting information along with MBA mortgage applications to provide a solid read of the current and near future (2 or less year timeline) home mortgage market.

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